PKU professor maps shifting currents in China outbound investment

Peking University professor Deng Ziliang has published a new analysis of the forces reshaping Chinese companies’ overseas expansion, warning that geopolitical tensions and reshoring policies are redrawing the map for export-oriented manufacturers heading into 2025 and beyond.

Writing for the National School of Development at Peking University (NSD), Deng — who also serves as academic director of the school’s MBA programme — said outbound investment from China shows no signs of cooling. Citing commerce department data from a northern Chinese province, he noted that the number of approved overseas-invested enterprises and institutions filed in that jurisdiction alone climbed from 280 in 2022 to 506 in 2024. The trajectory, he wrote, signals deepening commitment to global markets even as the external environment grows more complicated.

“Entering 2025, the global political and economic landscape is undergoing profound restructuring, and Chinese companies going overseas face an increasingly complex external environment,” Deng wrote. “Geopolitical rivalry is intensifying, anti-globalisation undercurrents are surging, and the international environment is becoming ever more unpredictable.” At the same time, he added, emerging-market demand remains robust, the digital economy continues to expand, and the green transition is gathering pace.

The analysis carries direct implications for China’s fishing tackle industry, which has long relied on overseas markets for the bulk of its revenue. Tackle manufacturers in Shandong, Guangdong, and Zhejiang — three provinces that anchor the country’s rod, reel, and lure production — have spent the past decade scaling cross-border e-commerce operations, establishing distribution networks in Europe and North America, and acquiring outdoor brands abroad. According to data cited in earlier work by Deng, the number of listed Chinese companies generating overseas revenue grew from roughly 200 in 2003 to approximately 2,700 by 2023, with the share of listed firms with foreign sales climbing steadily alongside it.

Deng pointed to three sectors — new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells — as the most visible flagships of China’s “going out” push, but the same playbook of shifting from product exports to ecosystem-level engagement is now visible across consumer goods, including sporting and outdoor recreation equipment. “When SHEIN reshapes global fast fashion through flexible supply chains, when TikTok Shop sparks live-commerce waves in Southeast Asia, and when BYD’s electric vehicles surpass 8 percent market share in Europe, Chinese companies’ overseas push is moving from product export to ecosystem empowerment,” Deng said in a related lecture summary. “This is not merely an expansion of market territory, but a comprehensive upgrade in business thinking, organisational form, and competitive paradigm.”

For tackle exporters, the strategic shift suggests that simply shipping containers of rods, reels, and lures to overseas distributors may no longer suffice. More manufacturers are expected to establish foreign-registered brands, operate localised marketing operations, and even set up assembly or finishing facilities closer to end markets to sidestep tariffs and meet sustainability requirements. The fishing tackle sector, while smaller than the headline-grabbing “new three” industries, faces the same structural pressures: rising protectionism in the United States and European Union, supply chain de-risking mandates from Western buyers, and growing competition from Southeast Asian producers offering lower labour costs.

Deng’s analysis also highlighted a contrarian thread: while headlines focus on companies relocating production to Vietnam, Thailand, or Mexico, many Chinese firms are simultaneously deepening their domestic value chains and investing in upstream raw materials and core technology to retain competitive advantages. For fishing tackle, this could mean greater investment in proprietary carbon-fibre blank technology, precision reel gearing, and sustainable bio-based materials — areas where Chinese factories have historically been price-takers rather than price-setters.

The professor cautioned that the road ahead will not be linear. Currency volatility, regulatory fragmentation, and the risk of secondary sanctions all loom large. But the underlying momentum, he argued, remains firmly intact. “The enthusiasm for overseas investment continues unabated,” Deng concluded, framing the current turbulence not as a retreat from globalisation but as a more sophisticated, more contested, and more strategically deliberate phase of it.

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